Market news, views and information from a Wall Street veteran

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 30th

Ticker Date Name Close WEIGHTING ST DMI MT DMI ST MACD Hist
AA 1/29/07 Alcoa Inc 31.8 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL DOWN
AIG 1/29/07 American Internat Group 68.35 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BEAR UP
AXP 1/29/07 American Express Co 57.64 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BEAR DOWN
BA 1/29/07 Boeing Co 85.5 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR UP
C 1/29/07 Citigroup 54.06 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL DOWN
CAT 1/29/07 Caterpillar Inc 61.7 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL UP
DD 1/29/07 Du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I. 48.96 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BULL DOWN
DIS 1/29/07 Walt Disney Co The 34.68 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL UP
GE 1/29/07 General Electric Co 36.19 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BEAR UP
GM 1/29/07 General Motors Corp 32.67 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL DOWN
HD 1/29/07 Home Depot Inc 39.91 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL DOWN
HON 1/29/07 Honeywell International 44.23 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR UP
HPQ 1/29/07 Hewlett-Packard Co 42.42 NEUTRAL BULL BULL UP
IBM 1/29/07 International Business Machines Corp 98.54 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL UP
INTC 1/29/07 Intel Corp 20.89 NEUTRAL BULL BULL UP
JNJ 1/29/07 Johnson & Johnson 66.15 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR UP
JPM 1/29/07 JPMorgan Chase & Co 49.47 NEUTRAL BULL BULL DOWN
KO 1/29/07 Coca-Cola Co 47.71 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BEAR DOWN
MCD 1/29/07 Mcdonalds Corp 43.23 UNDERPERFORM BEAR BEAR UP
MMM 1/29/07 3M Company 78.96 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR UP
MO 1/29/07 Altria Group Inc 88.06 NEUTRAL BULL BULL UP
MRK 1/29/07 Merck & Co 45.51 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL DOWN
MSFT 1/29/07 Microsoft Corp 30.53 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL UP
PFE 1/29/07 Pfizer Inc 26.06 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR DOWN
PG 1/29/07 Procter & Gamble Co 64.88 NEUTRAL BULL BULL UP
T 1/29/07 AT&T Inc 36.51 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL DOWN
UTX 1/29/07 United Technologies Corp 65.69 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL DOWN
VZ 1/29/07 Verizon Communications 38.03 OUTPERFORM BULL BULL UP
WMT 1/29/07 Wal-Mart Stores Inc 47.63 NEUTRAL BEAR BULL DOWN
XOM 1/29/07 Exxon Mobil Corporation 73.2 NEUTRAL BEAR BEAR DOWN

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Saturday, January 27, 2007

S&P500 WEEKLY Analysis for Jan 26th



  • 53% (64% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA – ST BEARISH.
  • 80% (84% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA - MT NEUTRAL.
  • 79% (79% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA - LT BULLISH.
  • 1st time frame up trend intact but outside period denotes indecision.
  • The market closed with the bears keen, showing moderate control but losing commitment following a significant loss of commitment from the bulls earlier in the week.
  • The resistance area, marked dark yellow, was tested for the seventh week in succession. This area is extremely important. Market action could potentially explode if this area is broken to the upside. Once again, this area and the support area, marked dark red, should be watched next week.
  • Triple MAs remain BULLISH.
  • MACD histogram has changed to ST BEARISH.
  • ST volatility has lost momentum, as suggested last week. The close-by resistance in ST volatility held. There is a possibility that volatility could stall for a short period. If that is the case, we could see ST consolidation or a re-test of the support area.
  • Volume was slightly greater than on the previous upswing high – no volume divergence.
  • 53% of socks are above their 4 week MA – ST BEARISH.

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S&P100 Weekly Portfolio w/e Jan 26th

This week's new entries are in the current issue of the weekly newsletter.
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Ticker

Date

Name

Close

Buy Price

Bought Weeks Ago

PctP/L

CMCSA

1/26/07

Comcast Corp Cl A

43.3

35.12

18

23.29

UIS

1/26/07

Unisys Corp

8.24

6.88

11

19.77

WY

1/26/07

Weyerhaeuser Co

75.15

66.68

7

12.7

ATI

1/26/07

Allegheny Technologies

100.51

91.56

1

9.78

GS

1/26/07

Goldman Sachs Group Inc

213.5

199.05

3

7.26

MS

1/26/07

Morgan Stanley

82.12

78.61

7

4.47

DIS

1/26/07

Walt Disney Co The

34.55

33.09

8

4.41

HET

1/26/07

Harrah's Entertainment

85.54

82.66

5

3.48

MSFT

1/26/07

Microsoft Corp

30.6

29.64

3

3.24

MER

1/26/07

Merrill Lynch & Co

94.53

92

3

2.75

HPQ

1/26/07

Hewlett-Packard Co

41.69

40.63

5

2.61

CCU

1/26/07

Clear Channel Comm Inc

37.1

36.19

2

2.51

HD

1/26/07

Home Depot Inc

39.94

38.97

8

2.49

DD

1/26/07

Du Pont de Nemours & Company E.I.

49.19

48.05

3

2.37

IBM

1/26/07

International Business Machines Corp

97.45

95.3

6

2.26

EMC

1/26/07

Emc Corp

13.74

13.61

3

0.96

MRK

1/26/07

Merck & Co

45.99

45.6

1

0.86



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Wednesday, January 24, 2007

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 24th

ST BULLISH
AA, GM, HD, JPM, T, UTX, VZ, WMT

ST BEARISH
AIG, AXP, BA, CAT, GE, HON, KO

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S&P500 Daily Analysis for Jan 24th



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  • 1st time frame up trend.
  • Japanese candlestick White Marubozu pattern - denotes a very bullish market.
  • The market closed with the bulls keen, strongly in control and committed.
  • Nice range extension signifies eagerness of bulls.
  • The resistance area, marked in orange, which had been tested on at least eight previous occasions, was convincingly taken out today - very bullish.
  • Triple MAs are BULLISH.
  • MACD histogram is ST bullish.
  • ST volatility is very close to ST resistance, marked bright green. Even though it's a minor level, we could see the current strong up swing stall briefly. There was a lot of effort exerted in taking out the strong resistance, so a brief pause would not surprise. This could go either way. In the end though, it would be a brief pause because the dominant cycle in ST volatility will soon re-establish itself.
  • Volume increased slightly as the market made new swing highs, supporting the current up swing. Noticeably, there is now a possible setup for a volume divergence.

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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Dow 30 stocks - Daily Outperforming and Underperforming for Jan 23rd

ST BULLISH
AA, DIS, GM, HD, JPM, MCD, MRK, PG, T, UTX, VZ

ST BEARISH
AIG, AXP, BA, C, GE, HON, INTC, KO

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Saturday, January 20, 2007

S&P500 WEEKLY Analysis for Jan 19th


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  • 1st time frame up trend intact.
  • Japanese candlestick doji denotes indecisiveness.
  • The market closed with neither the bulls nor bears keen, in control or committed.
  • The resistance area, marked dark yellow, has been tested for the for the sixth week in succession. This area is extremely important. Market action could potentially explode if this area is broken to the upside. This area and the support area, marked dark red, should be watched next week.
  • Triple MAs remain BULLISH.
  • MACD histogram remains ST BULLISH.
  • ST volatility continues to build momentum. There is close-by resistance in ST volatility. There is a possibility that volatility could stall for a short period. An upside break of resistance in volatility, combined with and upside break of resistance in price action, would be significant.
  • The market has taken out the ST trend line – signifies a ST loss of momentum.
  • Volume has come off as the 1st time frame up trend continued – not bullish.
  • 64% of socks are above their 4 week MA – BULLISH.

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