S&P500 Weekly Analysis

Weekly Market bull/bear skew (C+D) has changed to BEARISH – 67% (prev 70%) and lost momentum.

Last week saw rotation into Phases B and D from Phase C. The trend in Phase B has changed to UP while the trend in Phase D remains UP. This trend configuration fails to support the bearish skew.

The weekly Cycle Gauge is C5. This indicates that the market has been in the Distribution Phase for five weeks.

• 44% (34% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA.
• 50% (53% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA.
• 59% (61% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA.

• The Cycle Gauge is DOWN in the ST and MT but remains UP in the LT time frame.
• Weekly Cycle Gauge is in the Distribution Phase (C5).
• The skew remains BEARISH, lost momentum and the Phase trend configuration raises doubt about the sustainability of the current down swing.
• RSI of ST volatility trending down from cyclical trough => price action has reverted back to the mean => new ST up swing or congestion.
• 44% of stocks are above their 4week MA, trending DOWN=>ST BULLISH.
• 50% of stocks are above their 30week MA and trending DOWN => MT BEARISH.
• RSI remains within the bull market OS zone (40 to 50 band) – possible upside bounce.
• 1^st TF trend still down but bulls took control and showed commitment at end of week.
• While the CG skew is BEARISH some evidence supports a short term retracement or congestion.

S*P 500 Weekly Analysis

• CG is DOWN in the ST and MT TFs but UP in the LT.
• Weekly CG is in the Distribution Phase (C4).
• The skew remains BEARISH but continued to lose momentum.
• RSI of ST volatility has formed a cyclical peak in the OB zone => volatility has decelerated and price action reverted back to the mean => ST pullback to continue or congestion.
• 60% of stocks are above their 4week MAs => ST BULLISH.
• 57% of stocks are above their 30week MAs and trend is up => MT BULLISH.
• Pivot point buy signal
• Change of 1st FT trend to UP with bulls showing signs of commitment but not as keen as last week.
• While the CG skew remains bearish, the majority of evidence supports continuation of the current up swing.