Market news, views and information from a Wall Street veteran

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

S&P500 Daily Analysis for Feb 21st



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  • 1st time frame down trend intact.
  • The market closed with the bears keener but the bears lost the control they had earlier in the day and lacked the commitment to close the market down near the lows.
  • Inside day signifies indecision in the market.
  • Japanese candlestick Hammer pattern alerts us to a potential ST reversal - need confirmation.
  • Over the last three days there has been strong upside price rejection from the previous resistance area, marked in lime green. This area will be very important over the next few days. Will it hold ? If this area is taken out, we could see the market trade down to the support area at 1431, marked in orange.
  • Triple MAs are bullish.
  • MACD histogram is ST bearish and w have a divergence - ST bearish.
  • ST volatility is at a very strong support area. We should see a cyclical trough in ST volatility very soon. This has repercussions for this market at the moment. The next market move will be quite strong. So, if the support is taken out we could see a move down to 1431. If it holds, a strong upside move to new highs is likely.
  • Triple divergence between price and volume. We like to see volume making new highs with price action new highs - not so over the last few weeks. You have to question the commitment of the bulls in making the recent highs.
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