Cycle Gauge and Market Internals for week ending Nov 4th, 2005
S&P500
Weekly Market bull/bear skew (A+B) has changed to BULLISH – 52% (prev 37%).
There has been very strong rotation from Phases C and D into A and B. The trend in Phases C and D has changed from up to down, while Phases A and B have begun to trend up strongly.
The weekly Cycle Gauge has changed to A1. This indicates that the market has rotated from the Termination Phase to the Accumulation Phase.
77.2% (57.3% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA.
54.5% (48.5% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA.
55.7% (51.9% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA.
Comment
Weekly Market bull/bear skew (A+B) has changed to BULLISH – 62% (prev 41%).
There has been very strong rotation from Phases C and D into Phases A and B. Phases A and B are now trending up strongly while Phases C and D trend down – exactly what we should as an up swing develops strongly.
The weekly Cycle Gauge is B22. This indicates that the market has rotated back into the Advancing Phase.
78% (63% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA.
65% (49% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA.
59% (46% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA.
Comment
Weekly Market bull/bear skew (A+B) has changed to BULLISH – 52% (prev 37%).
There has been very strong rotation from Phases C and D into A and B. The trend in Phases C and D has changed from up to down, while Phases A and B have begun to trend up strongly.
The weekly Cycle Gauge has changed to A1. This indicates that the market has rotated from the Termination Phase to the Accumulation Phase.
77.2% (57.3% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA.
54.5% (48.5% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA.
55.7% (51.9% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA.
Comment
- CG is UP in all three time frames.
- Weekly CG rotated into the Accumulation Phase.
- Volatility seems to have stalled in the medium term time frame and the RSI of volatility is flat.
- Expect to see strong trending action in the next few weeks as volatility begins to pick up momentum.
- 77.2% of stocks are above their 4week MA => this confirms the new short term up swing – watch for this to cross back below 70 for a short-term reversal signal.
- 54.5% of stocks are above their 30week MAS => this indicator is now trending up => strength returning to the market.
- Expect the current up swing to continue.
Weekly Market bull/bear skew (A+B) has changed to BULLISH – 62% (prev 41%).
There has been very strong rotation from Phases C and D into Phases A and B. Phases A and B are now trending up strongly while Phases C and D trend down – exactly what we should as an up swing develops strongly.
The weekly Cycle Gauge is B22. This indicates that the market has rotated back into the Advancing Phase.
78% (63% prev) of stocks closed above their 4 week MA.
65% (49% prev) of stocks closed above their 30 week MA.
59% (46% prev) of stocks closed above their 52 week MA.
Comment
- CG in all three time frames is UP.
- Weekly CG has rotated back into the Advancing Phase (B22).
- MT volatility has formed a cyclical trough and is beginning to build momentum => the current up swing should continue to develop.
- ST volatility has begun to pick up again, suggesting that the current up swing may develop further.
- 78% of stocks are above their 4week MA => confirms the ST up swing – look for a cross back below 70 for a signal that the swing may terminate.
- The trend in the 30 and 52Wk MA bullish pct is up => suggests that the current swing has some strength behind it.
- The daily Cycle Phase rotations favour a continuation of the current rally.
- Watch close by overhead resistance.
- Expect the current up swing to continue.
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